1️⃣ Forex Markets

• EUR/USD: The euro rose due to weak U.S. inflation data and expectations that the Fed will cut rates in September. The pair stabilized around 1.1450, then surpassed 1.1500 — its highest level in 3 years. Technical forecasts suggest a possible correction toward 1.1505 before continuing the rise to 1.1600+.

• USD/JPY: No detailed coverage was available this week from sources, but the yen remains a safe haven amid global tensions.

• GBP/USD: Weekly indicators suggest sterling dominance driven by improving UK economic performance, despite the absence of specific value data.

• AUD/USD: No new data appeared from sources this week, but current stability reflects continued influence from commodity prices and trade relations.

2️⃣ Gold Prices

Gold reached its highest level in over a month, supported by Middle East tensions and weak U.S. inflation data, rising to around $3,428/oz, with a weekly gain exceeding 3.5%.
There was a notable divergence between futures prices (reaching $3,377 at the beginning of the week) and spot trading prices (around $3,304).
Expectations remain bullish if geopolitical tensions persist ahead of central bank meetings.

3️⃣ Political Tensions and Market Impact

• Middle East: On June 13, Israel launched wide-scale airstrikes on Iran under “Operation Lion Ascension,” targeting nuclear and military facilities and killing prominent Iranian leaders. This led to a rise in oil and gold prices and a global decline in stock indices.

• Consequences: Oil prices surged by more than 7–10% (Brent to ~$74–78), while U.S. stock futures dropped nearly 1%, with Dow and futures slipping –400 to –600 points. Investors shifted from equities to safe havens like the dollar, gold, and bonds.

• Additional Factors: Weak manufacturing and business activity data from the U.S. and China, along with notably weak U.S. PPI and jobs data, reinforced expectations of upcoming interest rate cuts.

4️⃣ Future Outlook

🔹 Currencies:
EUR/USD may continue testing the 1.1500–1.1530 resistance area, with potential upside to 1.156–1.160 as indicated by technical analysis. Volatility is likely amid geopolitical developments and inflation data.

🔹 Gold:
Gold remains stable as a safe haven and may continue rising toward the $3,431–3,450 resistance range if the conflict escalates and rate cut expectations improve.

🔹 Oil:
Oil is expected to remain highly sensitive to any military developments in the Gulf, with the potential for further price increases if tensions persist or if oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted.