Weekly Market Outlook (August 25 – 29, 2025)

 

 


1. Forex – U.S. Dollar and Major Currencies

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) saw a notable decline this week following comments from the Federal Reserve Chair, hinting at a possible interest rate cut in September. This drop in the dollar provided strong support for major currencies:

  • EUR/USD posted solid gains, with prices approaching key resistance levels.

  • GBP/USD continued its upward move, breaking above several resistance zones, increasing the likelihood of targeting higher levels in the coming sessions.

  • Meanwhile, JPY remained relatively stable, showing minimal changes throughout the week.

Overall:
Major currencies benefited from the weakness in the U.S. dollar, with the euro and pound leading the way, while the yen remained steady.


2. Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold started the week trading around $3,364/oz, and with growing expectations of a Fed rate cut and falling U.S. yields, the precious metal extended its rally, closing Friday near $3,447/oz, marking a weekly gain of roughly +$40.

Technical Outlook:

  • Key range: $3,350 – $3,439

  • A break above resistance could open the door toward $3,500 – $3,600.

  • Conversely, a break below $3,350 support may push prices down toward $3,283 – $3,245.

With ongoing market uncertainty and Fed policy speculation, gold remains the top safe-haven asset, attracting strong investor demand.


3. Oil (WTI & Brent)

Oil prices were volatile and range-bound throughout the week, caught between concerns over excess global supply and signs of improving demand.

  • Brent Crude: Hovered around $67/barrel.

  • WTI: Stabilized near $64/barrel.

While falling inventories and improving fuel demand provided some support, persistent oversupply fears continued to cap upward momentum, keeping oil directionless and choppy.


4. Technical and Trading Performance Summary

  • Gold was the standout performer, leading the markets with strong gains as investors flocked to safe-haven assets.

  • Major currencies like the euro and pound advanced strongly thanks to the dollar’s weakness.

  • Oil struggled to find direction, remaining pressured by global supply concerns.

Key takeaway:
The week was dominated by risk sentiment shifts driven by Fed policy expectations. Traders are closely watching the September Fed meeting, which could trigger major volatility across forex, commodities, and energy markets.

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