Weekly Market Outlook (September 1 – 5, 2025)
1. Forex – U.S. Dollar and Major Currencies
U.S. Dollar Weakness (DXY):
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a significant decline this week as expectations grew for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The index traded below 97.70, with potential for further downside toward 96.70 if bearish pressure continues.
EUR/USD: The pair climbed above 1.17, approaching a key resistance zone at 1.1720.
A break above 1.1720 could pave the way toward 1.1800.
A drop below 1.1600 support may reignite selling pressure.
GBP/USD: Continued its upward movement after consolidating near 1.3450, but faced resistance around 1.3516.
A break above 1.3530 could open the path toward 1.3700.
A drop below 1.3450 would put the pair back under pressure.
Overall:
Major currencies like the euro and pound gained strong momentum this week, fueled by broad dollar weakness.
2. Gold (XAU/USD)
New Record High:
Gold surged past the $3,500/oz mark, reaching a peak near $3,508, before consolidating around $3,545 by week’s end.
If monetary policy pressures persist, analysts forecast a potential rally toward the $5,000/oz level in the coming months.
Egyptian Market Performance:
In Egypt, 24K gold began the week trading near EGP 5,354 per gram, supported by global price increases and a weaker Egyptian pound.
Drivers and Technical Outlook:
Continued demand for safe-haven assets amid Fed rate cut fears.
Strong uptrend remains intact:
Support zone: $3,430 – $3,450
Next resistance: $3,600
3. Oil (WTI & Brent)
Price Declines Throughout the Week:
WTI Crude: Closed near $61.87/barrel, down from around $64/barrel earlier in the week.
Brent Crude: Followed a similar pattern, weighed down by supply-side concerns.
Key Influencing Factors:
U.S. crude inventories rose by more than 2 million barrels, signaling oversupply.
OPEC+ meeting expectations, with fears of production hikes adding bearish sentiment.
As a result, oil remained range-bound and directionless, trapped between oversupply fears and weak global demand.
4. Technical and Trading Performance Overview
Major currencies such as the euro and pound were strong performers, supported by sustained dollar weakness.
Gold dominated the markets, posting historic all-time highs, making it the clear winner for the week.
Oil stayed pressured and volatile, lacking a clear bullish or bearish trend.
Takeaway:
This week was driven by Fed rate cut expectations, pushing investors toward safe-haven assets like gold, while major currencies rallied against the dollar. Oil, however, continues to face challenges from oversupply and global demand uncertainty, keeping traders cautious.
