Developments in the Forex and Gold Markets and the Impact of Global Tariff Tensions
First: Forex Markets
The currency markets witnessed clear fluctuations this week, influenced by global trade tensions and economic data released from several countries.
Euro vs. US Dollar (EUR/USD): The pair continued its rise, supported by the declining performance of the dollar and increased confidence in European economic indicators.
US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen (USD/JPY): The pair recorded a decline as investors increasingly turned to the yen as a safe haven amid escalating concerns over trade tensions.
British Pound (GBP): The pound came under pressure following an International Monetary Fund (IMF) report indicating a projected slowdown in the United Kingdom’s economic growth due to US-imposed tariffs on its exports.
Second: Gold Prices
Gold prices rose at the beginning of the week, reaching a historic high of $3,500 per ounce, as demand for safe-haven assets grew amid unstable trade and economic conditions.
However, prices later fell to around $3,318 following US statements aimed at easing economic tensions and de-escalating tariff disputes.
Despite this correction, major financial institutions such as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs forecast that the upward trend in gold will continue, expecting it to surpass $3,700 to $4,500 by the end of 2025 or early 2026.
Third: Tariff Tensions and Their Impact on Global Markets
At the beginning of April, the United States announced new tariffs of 10% on all imports, along with selective tariffs on certain countries, in what the government called “Liberation Day Tariffs.”
This was followed by strong reactions from several countries, including China, which imposed retaliatory tariffs on US exports.
Global supply chains were noticeably affected, with major logistics companies such as DHL announcing the suspension of some services to the United States due to customs complications.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast for global economic growth to 2.8%, warning that escalating tariffs pose a direct threat to emerging markets and small economies.
Fourth: Future Outlook
Currency Markets: Fluctuations are likely to continue amid increasing uncertainty regarding the future of international trade relations.
Gold Prices: Despite the recent decline, the overall trend remains upward amid ongoing economic tensions.
Global Trade: Further slowdown is expected, especially if protectionist policies persist and tariffs expand to cover new sectors.